The hottest spot PTA of Zhongrui finance is weak,

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Zhongrui Finance: PTA spot weakness, limited rebound in futures price

PTA futures price continued to be under pressure this week, and the main 0901 contract rebounded at the beginning of the week supported by China's 4trillion economic stimulus plan, but as the benefits subsided, the futures price hit a new low for listing. Near the weekend, China took new measures to rescue the market, increased the export tax rebate rate of some products, and adjusted the export tariffs of some products. The 901 contract stopped falling at 4250 yuan/ton, but on the whole, it still did not get rid of the upper average pressure

since the beginning of this week, China's major economic departments have successively released economic data for October. These data will be used to illustrate the current domestic economic situation. The PPI data first released showed that the PPI in October increased by 6.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that of 9.1% in September. The PPI in August this year increased by 10.1% year-on-year, the third consecutive month since June, hitting a 10-year high in public data. The public data of PPI in China only began in November, 1998. The historical high of PPI before this year was 8.4% in October 2004. The highest monthly growth rate of PPI in China in 2007 was 5.4% in December, and the lowest was 2.4% in July; The highest monthly growth rate of PPI in 2006 was 3.6% in July and the lowest was 1.9% in April. The Bureau of statistics also announced that from January to October, PPI increased by 8.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 8.3% growth rate from January to September. China's PPI in 2007 increased by 3.1% year-on-year, faster than the 3.0% growth rate in 2006, but lower than the 4.9% in 2005 and 6.1% in 2004

on the whole, the growth rate of PPI in October fell rapidly from the high level of more than 10 years, reflecting that the global economic slowdown has affected China's domestic real economy. The economic slowdown and shrinking domestic demand have broken the previous tight supply and demand of raw materials and energy in China, causing downward pressure on prices. Judging from the current situation, the slowdown of China's real economic growth is a foregone conclusion. The manager's purchasing index just released in November and the power production data from January to October also show again that enterprises have reduced their investment in production under slightly pessimistic market expectations. If there is no specific investment incentive from the government, the future industrial and investment data will further decline

basic situation of PTA Market:

demand shrank, inventories increased, and nymex-12 crude oil futures fell below the $60 mark. At present, the spread of the global financial crisis to the real economy has led to a decline in oil consumption demand in major economies. Although OPEC member countries began to reduce production, it was difficult to withstand the impact of many negative factors. PX prices in Asia continued to fall this week, and market fundamentals remained weak. On November 13, PX in Asia fell $25 to $565-570/ton FOB South Korea, and PX in Europe fell $25 to $565/ton FOB Rotterdam

at the beginning of the week, supported by the short-term rebound in the downstream, the slowdown of the decline in the spot PX market temporarily got a breather. However, with the sharp fall of international crude oil again, the fragile rebound in the downstream came to an end in a hurry, and the market sentiment fell sharply again, which may stimulate the bearish sentiment in the PX market to rise again. Overall, the PX market is watching carefully for changes in various factors. First, the performance of the international crude oil market is chaotic, and the later trend is still uncertain. Second, for PX manufacturers, the change of demand is more critical. In the future, we should pay close attention to the driving trend and material preparation of Hualian Sanxin. Third, PX manufacturers should further deepen production reduction, try to control the relationship between supply and demand, and do not develop in the direction of further deterioration before the end of the year

px start-up and shutdown, SABIC Europe said it would close the PX plant in Wilton, UK. The company said that the revenue of the device was unsustainable, and SABIC Europe faced a difficult decision due to its full consideration of long-term feasibility. Due to weak demand and sluggish earnings, Japan's Chuguang Petrochemical will reduce the operating rate of its 265000 ton/year PX plant in Chiba to 75% from September 25 to the end of November. In addition, Chuguang's 210000 ton/year PX plant in Tokuyama plans to carry out planned shutdown and overhaul from September 20, and the aromatics combined plant here will be shut down for a total of 50 days. CPC plans to carry out planned shutdown and overhaul of No. 2 xylene separation unit during the period from mid November to the end of December, and the three common types are tension, compression and twists. This unit can produce 220000 tons of PX per year. It is said that xinrishi restarted the 350000 ton/year PX plant in Kawasaki on October 1, after 40 days of shutdown and maintenance. On October 1, South Korea's Samsung total shut down the Aromatics Complex in Dashan, where the PX capacity was 600000 tons/year for a 40 day shutdown overhaul. Taiwan FCFC's No. 3 PX plant and Japan's Kajima aromatics are also being shut down for maintenance. ExxonMobil's plant in Beaumont, Texas (with a PX capacity of 340000 tons/year) was damaged by Hurricane Ike, and it continued to maintain a fault shutdown state, and the restart time could not be estimated. China Fujia Dahua plans to carry out commercial production of the new aromatics combined unit located in Dalian hydraulic testing machine, which is mainly used for metals, in January 2009. The new combined plant has a capacity of 700000 T/a Px, 350000 T/a pure benzene and 100000 t/a ox. The vast majority of PX production will enter China's domestic market, and a large proportion is expected to be sold to PTA manufacturers in East China. PTT aromatics refining and chemical company of Thailand plans to maintain% load of the No.2 Petrochemical combined unit located in matafu before the end of the year. The combined unit can produce 610000 tons of PX per year. Since the end of September, the unit has begun to produce qualified products. Due to equipment failure, KP chemical of South Korea plans to close the PX plant at Yushan No. 2 from November 1, and plans to close it until November 15. It is reported that the absorbent unit of the plant has been trapped by failures since the middle of the year, resulting in the operating load of No. 2 PX plant hovering at 80%. Petkim plans to shut down the aromatics production unit in Aliaga, Turkey, for 30 days from this week, with a PX capacity of 140000 tons/year and an ox capacity of 3.5 million tons, depending on the amount of additives used Ten thousand tons/year, petkim was forced to make a parking decision because of the crazy shrinking profits. Reliance Industries of India shut down four polyester chain production plants in patalganga, including Px, PTA, polyester staple and polyester filament. PTT aromatics refining and chemical company of Thailand has closed the No. 1 aromatics production line of matafu No. 1 petrochemical complex since November 3, on the grounds of low revenue, where the PX capacity is 510000 tons/year, and the shutdown will last for about two weeks. Due to technical failure, KP chemical confirmed that it closed the PX plant No. 2 in Weishan on October 31, and the unit was scheduled to restart in mid November

for the spot market, the overall performance is still lack of confidence support. Out of the pessimistic expectation of the later market, many suppliers have become the main force of the recent spot market selling. At present, the mainstream quotation of the inner spot market has fallen to yuan/ton, and the depressed price of the spot market will come under heavy pressure again

due to the low production income, PTA manufacturers continue to arrange maintenance in turn, and the relationship between supply and demand still needs time to be repaired. At present, the operation status of the main PTA production units: Hualian Sanxin said that it would restart one of the three PTA units at the weekend. The company has issued a letter of credit and began to pay tariffs and value-added tax for 50000 tons of PX raw materials stored in tanks in Ningbo. These PX raw materials are being transported to the factory in Shaoxing. The capacity of three PTA units of Hualian Sanxin is 600000 tons/year, and the whole line was shut down on September 29. Xianglu Petrochemical continues to maintain about 80% of the operating load. BP Zhuhai phase I PTA plant is still in shutdown. Most mainstream PTA manufacturers in Asia outside Chinese Mainland have also reduced production or even stopped production. Samsung, Sannan, KP chemical and Mitsui chemical of Japan have all reduced production. The only PTA device in the IOC of India remained closed on Monday, and there is no clear plan to restart soon. The PTA capacity of this device is 533000 tons/year. Panipat, located in Haryana State, was closed on August 30. Due to low demand, since the third week of July, The operating rate of the device is reduced to 90%. A person from Samsung Petrochemical said that if the market conditions improve, the company may restart Weishan No. 1 PTA unit (with a capacity of 300000 tons/year), which was closed on June 20 due to the depressed market conditions. Samsung's No.2 PTA unit (with a capacity of 450000 tons/year) and No.3 PTA unit (with a capacity of 350000 tons/year) in Ulsan have been operating at 80% load, while Samsung's No.4 PTA unit (with a capacity of 700000 tons/year) in Seosan is operating at 90% load. Taiwan FCFC plans to start the trial operation of Loong der4 PTA new device at the end of October. The PTA capacity of this device is 400000 tons/year. It was originally planned to start in June, but it was postponed due to engineering reasons. After the start-up of this device, the total PTA capacity of FCFC will increase from 2.3 million tons/year to 2.7 million tons/year. Reliance Industries of India shut down four polyester chain production plants in patalganga, including Px, PTA, polyester staple and polyester filament

the spot price of MEG continued to fall this week. The transaction price of bulk imports in the market is generally at yuan/ton. The downturn of MEG trend is mainly due to the pessimism of the current economic form. The downstream textile export is not smooth, and the crude oil price has also been affected by the financial crisis. It fluctuates at a low level. Ethylene continues to decline. China's traders continue to sell their funds for the withdrawal of funds, and even many foreign businessmen have financial problems. Low prices are frequently reported in the US dollar market, leading the domestic market downward

downstream: affected by the sharp decline in international oil prices and the weak consolidation of polyester raw materials such as PTA, the performance of terminal polyester products is still sluggish, and the stock in the early stage of downstream weaving and texturing is still not completely used up. Therefore, the overall production and sales of polyester yarn continue to maintain a low level, and the polyester yarn inventory of major manufacturers is also rising rapidly, however, In the early stage, the polyester factory successfully transferred some polyester yarn inventory to downstream customers, and even made some pre-sales. Therefore, the current pressure on the inventory and capital of the polyester factory is still within the normal range, and the change of mentality is not too bad. However, considering the downward trend of the overall market, polyester has been basically established, and the overall price focus of polyester yarn still has a decline of one to two hundred. POY, FDY The cash focus of dty150d has been reduced to, 8000 and 8900 yuan/ton respectively, and the transaction is still quite light

summary: dragged down by the global financial storm, the world economy has entered a difficult period. China's textile industry bears the brunt due to its outstanding export-oriented characteristics, becoming the industry with the most serious losses among China's large-scale enterprises in the first half of the year, with a loss of 18.3%. However, at present, this unfavorable market situation shows an upward trend. According to the news from the just concluded 104th Canton Fair, the export turnover of this Canton Fair was US $31.55 billion, down 17.5% from the previous Canton Fair. Based on this situation, the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people's Republic of China is also very pessimistic about the trend of the textile industry in the fourth quarter. From the current operating situation and the internal and external environment faced by the textile industry, the situation in the fourth quarter is more severe, and the growth rate of the industry will continue to fall

recently, the state has made a series of regulatory measures in response to the current downturn in the bulk commodity market. The State Council held an executive meeting last week, deciding to adopt an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and to invest 4trillion yuan before 2010 to expand domestic demand. On the evening of December 12, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to continue to increase the export tax rebate rate of some labor-intensive products, mechanical and electrical products and products greatly affected by exports, accounting for about 27.9% of all export products, involving 3770 products

short term PTA may rise due to OPEC production reduction expectations and national macro-control and other favorable factors, but the downturn in the spot market will bring more hedging opportunities to dealers after PTA rebound

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